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User blog:Hurricane Layten/March 28, 2017 outlook
THIS BLOG HAS HAD UPDATES SINCE IT WAS WRITTEN. SEE THE UPDATES SECTION AT THE BOTTOM OF THE PAGE FOR DETAILS. OK, so today has been Enhanced Risk for a few days now, and this remains the same today, though I'd say looking at the Day 1 outlook that a Moderate Risk could get issued later on if needed. The SPC is calling for 2 areas of severe weather today. The first over the southern Plains, the second over the Mid Atlantic states. The first area of risk is over parts of central and northern TX, as well as parts of southern OK. The SPC is calling for the potential for very large hail, and significant wind gusts in this area. It is also worth noting that tornadoes are in the forecast for today, with the potential for some strong tornadoes in northern TX where the instability will be greatest. The exact setup is as follows: A large mid-upper level trough is spread over the Four States region, which will move over the Rockies as the day progresses in the Enhanced Risk area. In addition to this, a dryline will also be moving over western TX, which will be overtaken by a faster moving Pacific cold front over the course of the day. Again, another warm front will move over northern TX, and the resulting triple point will allow a significant build up of convection over these areas as a result. Although the risk is Enhanced on the 0930 UTC outlook, I wouldnt be surprised to see a Moderate risk issued for this system by 2000 UTC, given teh current setup. It is worth noting that the SPC is showing a favourable upper level environment over the expected storms, which is expected to set the storms into rotation, posing a threat for supercell thunderstorms towards the mid to late afternoon. Some of these supercells may be capable of producing EF2+ tornadoes, particularly over northern TX where the instability will be greatest. In addition to this, another, but weaker, shortwave trough is moving across the southern Appalachians and out into the Atlantic over the Marginal Risk area. The SPC is noting that although thunderstorms capable of producing hail and significant winds is possible later today, tit is unlikely, resulting in a Marginal Risk of severe weather for the VA/NC area as a result of this. A tornado, later confirmed as an EF1, struck parts of Jackson, TN, causing some structural damage.In addition to this, 2 possible tornadoes were reported to the SPC. They were reported as occurring in Decaturville, TN, where structural damage occurred, as well as trees and power lines being downed. The other occurred in parts of Hohenwald, TN, and was again responsible for damage, though it doesnt say of what kind on the SPC website at this time. UPDATE: 1330 UTC OK, my thoughts this morning have been confirmed by the SPC. A Moderate Risk is now in effect for similar areas of TX and OK as yesterday. Tornadoes, very large hail, and significant damaging winds are now expected after 1400 CDT from this system. Anyway, I'll continue to monitor the situation as I usually do,and report any tornadoes in tomorrows outlook as usual. UPDATE: 2030 UTC: OK, sorry for not updating about an hour ago, but im busy tracking so many storms right now. Discord invite available at the end of this paragraph, where live updates will be issued until at least 2200 UTC Anyway, I'll continue to monitor the situation as I usually do,and report any tornadoes in tomorrows outlook as usual.